I have two predictions. One is for the next 10 years, and one is for sometime in my expected lifespan. I am as sure of them happening as my underlying sense of the unpredictability of real life allows.
Within 10 years, the glitzy uber-rich world of hip-hop/rap (I really don't know the difference) will come crashing down like the glam days of 80's metal. The make-upped faces and massive hair of the glory days of metal bands fell at the dirty feet and torn jeans of Nirvana and the grunge movement they inspired. The hair bands and their songs were getting so indulgent and glamorous that they weren't resonating with people anymore, since real life isn't that good. The depression and angst of grunge was much closer to real life in a fallen world. [Pride-killing disclaimer: most of this is a summary of a documentary on the glory days of metal that I watched on VH-1. It makes a lot of sense to me.] I look at guys like Usher, those dudes getting grills, the 50-million dollar necklaces bought for birthdays, the massive 3-day parties...all the stuff you see on MTV and VH-1 and Rolling Stone, and I see the unreal mountaintop waiting to come crashing down. I predict that some form of gritty, simple, un-slick, un-"filthy rich playa in a white suit" form of rap will bust out from the streets, from the bottom up, and start the whole music cycle over again. I look forward to seeing what that new style will be like.
My second prediction is vaguer, longer-term, and shorter: Sometime when I'm an old guy I am certain that I will look back on this time now and tell my kids or grandkids how we could just "go to a gas station and buy a tank of gas for $50, just like that." They'll be amazed at how nonchalantly we bought and used so much gasoline, as they take for granted whatever transportation means have emerged by then. I don't expect to be driving a straight-up gasoline-powered three-ton car when I'm 60, should God favor me with such a long life. The question I'm burning to discover is WHAT will that new transportation infrastruction be? Ahhh, we'll just have to wait and see!
And lastly, as a bonus prediction, with each passing day I become more and more acquainted with and accustomed to the idea that I'll eventually become a teacher (probably college prof). I can't see myself as a good engineer, and everyone I talk to about this squints their eyes and says "Yeah, you'd make a great teacher!" I would love to be a GOOD teacher. To avoid the mistakes I've seen, and impart the learning I have been priviledged to receive from a few choice humans at Pitt. Now, how I'll GET there, well, God only knows :-)
Yours truly,
--Future Man (aka CA)
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4 comments:
"Hey there Prof Behrens,
I really spent a lot of time studying for your exam. Even though I felt that I knew every thing, I decided to call LaWanda at the Psychic Friends Network to ask her advice.
She determined that because Mars was in Cancer, my performance on the exam would not be favorable on the day of the exam. She also advised me not to leave the house before 11 am the next day.
Now that Jupiter is in Libra, I am ready to REALLY take the exam."
I think that you are wrong regarding the future of rap/ hip-hop for the following reasons:
1) The kind of sweeping movement in (pop) culture seen when 80s metal 'fell' to grunge is no longer likely if even possible. The market for music (and other cultural products) has been irreparably fragmented. People are increasingly drawn to what most pleases them rather than what is currently a 'big deal' (because they have more options - when options are fewer, there is a stronger tendency to side with the masses). Stringing together enough market fragments to produce a sea change approaches impossible. This article shares my perspective on the music market: http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/14.07/longtail.html
Movement within genres will certainly continue. Highland Irish folk musicians might become enamored with the 4-string lute and a significant shift take place within this market fragment. However, this is profoundly different (less significant) than a rapid change in the music that you hear constantly, every day - on the radio, in stores, & accompanying tv programming (the type of shift that occurred from metal to grunge).
2) You underestimate the extent to which more genuine, gritty, street-driven rap is currently present in the hip-hop scene. Here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DMX_%28rapper%29
is an example of a current rapper who shares attributes of both sides of hip-hop, but who heavily leans in the street thuggish direction. Over-the-top materialistic rap will continue (supported by the portion of the market that enjoys it) and gritty 'from the streets' rap will continue. Their relative popularity might vary slightly, but it is almost unthinkable that one or the other will blink out of existence. Even talking in terms of two sides is a misnomer. The genre or industry is more of a spectrum. You talk about a cycle. I think more in terms of an enormous and rapidly growing tree (the music market). Certain branches might become larger relative to others, but few will die altogether, and the primary dynamism will be outward and upward rather than up and down or back and forth.
-Ken
"Um, Dr. Behrens, about this test score...do you think I could take an essay test instead of a multiple choice exam next time? My psychologist says MC is bad for me, and I really think I could be doing better in your class."
Ken's points seem valid. I have thought of the expansion and diversification of the music industry before, but didn't put it together with the topic of this post. Even though it's sad, I think it's probably true that nothing that dramatic could happen to the music market today. I would like to think otherwise, but given the undeniable abundance and variety of music easily available, I think the "tree model" is accurate.
Ah, I stand corrected again. Were it not for Ken (and UK and Grandpa Ken), I'd start to think I was pretty hot stuff :-)
And as far as you students there...pffft. You both get F's. There's your education; now eat it for breakfast!
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